Impact Evaluation of the 2025 Production Efficiency Program

Energy Trust of Oregon seeks a contractor to conduct an impact evaluation of its industrial and agricultural Production Efficiency (PE) program for the 2025 program year. The PE program provides incentives across four main tracks: Standard (prescriptive rebates and calculated incentives), Lighting (lighting and lighting controls measures), Custom (comprehensive capital upgrades and operations and maintenance improvements), and Strategic Energy Management (SEM) for implementing holistic energy management approaches. In 2025, the program provided incentives for over 1,100 projects, generating electric savings of just over 131 million kWh and natural gas savings of over 1.8 million therms.

The evaluation excludes mega-projects (incentives above $750,000) and five large projects evaluated separately. The evaluator will develop reliable estimates of PE program natural gas and electric savings to establish realization rates at both program and track levels, estimate electric and natural gas demand savings, and provide observations and recommendations to improve Energy Trust's energy savings estimates. The evaluation must achieve 10% precision at 90% confidence level across major tracks and the program overall.

Key deliverables include a work plan with sampling and customer recruitment plans, site-specific evaluation plans (SSEPs) for custom and SEM projects, interview guides, data collection through desk reviews, interviews, virtual and in-person site visits, and metering activities. The evaluator will conduct impact analysis to develop program and track-level savings estimates, realization rates, and demand savings estimates. Final deliverables include site-specific evaluation reports, a comprehensive impact evaluation report with executive summary, methods, results, conclusions and recommendations, and a public webinar presentation. Energy Trust expects results by the end of Q1 2027, with a draft evaluation report due by February 26, 2027.

The selected evaluator must maintain regular coordination with Energy Trust staff through check-in meetings and weekly updates during data collection, provide monthly status reports tracking budget and schedule variances, ensure compliance with Energy Trust's Inclusive Procurement Policy (minimum 15% of contract value directed to certified firms), demonstrate data security and confidentiality practices, and maintain appropriate insurance coverage including workers compensation, commercial general liability, automobile liability, and potentially cyber liability coverage.